XRP continues to face mounting pressure as technical indicators, derivatives data, and spot market activity point toward a cautious market environment. Although the token has managed to hold above a key support area near $1.05, sellers still dominate the short-term structure. Consequently, traders remain focused on whether XRP can stabilize above current levels or extend its decline in the coming sessions.
The recent downturn followed a failed attempt to sustain gains near $1.29 in mid-June. Since that rejection, XRP has formed a consistent sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
Moreover, the asset now trades beneath its 20-period, 50-period, and 100-period exponential moving averages, highlighting persistent bearish momentum. As long as price remains below these trend indicators, buyers may struggle to regain control.
Market participants are closely monitoring the support zone between $1.08 and $1.10. XRP briefly slipped below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, signaling weakening demand around current prices. If sellers push the token below the $1.05 swing low, downside momentum could accelerate significantly.
However, bulls still have opportunities to challenge the bearish trend. The first hurdle sits near the 20 EMA around $1.12.
XRP Price Dynamics (Source: Trading View)
Beyond that, resistance strengthens between $1.14 and $1.16, where Fibonacci retracement levels and major moving averages converge. Additionally, the $1.20 area remains an important barrier that could determine whether XRP can stage a broader recovery.
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Technical indicators currently favor the bears. The Directional Movement Index shows stronger negative momentum than positive momentum. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index suggests the existing trend retains enough strength to remain active.
Source:
Coinglass
Derivatives data reveals another important trend. XRP open interest has fallen dramatically from levels above $10 billion reached during the previous rally. Today, open interest sits near $2.58 billion, reflecting a substantial reduction in leveraged positions.
Significantly, this decline suggests that speculative excess has largely left the market. While reduced leverage can create a healthier market structure, fresh participation will likely be necessary to fuel a meaningful price recovery. Without renewed interest from traders, upside moves may remain limited.
Spot market activity paints a similar picture. Netflow data shows investors have generally withdrawn capital from XRP over recent months. Several periods recorded heavy outflows exceeding $100 million, underscoring sustained distribution pressure.
Source:
Coinglass
However, activity has moderated since March. Inflows and outflows have become smaller and more balanced, indicating reduced trading intensity. The latest reading shows only a modest net outflow, suggesting investors are waiting for clearer market direction before committing larger amounts of capital.
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Key levels remain critical as XRP trades within a bearish short-term structure while attempting to establish support above the $1.05 region.
Upside levels: $1.12 (20 EMA), $1.14 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement), and $1.16 (100 EMA) represent the first resistance barriers. A sustained breakout above this cluster could open the path toward $1.20 and eventually $1.29, where the previous rally stalled.
Downside levels: Immediate support lies between $1.08 and $1.10, followed by the major swing low at $1.05. A break below $1.05 could expose XRP to deeper losses as bearish momentum accelerates.
Resistance ceiling: The $1.12–$1.16 zone remains the key area bulls must reclaim to shift market sentiment and establish a stronger recovery trend.
The broader technical setup shows XRP trading below all major moving averages, reflecting persistent selling pressure. However, declining open interest suggests excessive leverage has been removed from the market, potentially creating a healthier base for future price action.
XRP’s near-term outlook depends on whether buyers can successfully defend the $1.05–$1.10 support zone and reclaim the $1.12–$1.16 resistance cluster. Stronger spot inflows and a recovery in open interest would provide additional confirmation that market participation is returning.
If bullish momentum strengthens, XRP could target $1.20 initially, with a move toward $1.29 becoming increasingly likely. However, failure to hold above $1.05 would reinforce the current bearish trend and increase the risk of a deeper correction.
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For now, XRP remains at a crucial inflection point. Technical indicators continue to favor sellers, yet improving market participation could quickly alter sentiment and set the stage for a broader recovery.
