Earnings Preview | Rocket Lab (RKLB.US) Faces Ongoing Profit Pressure Amid Revenue Surge, Neutron Delay Concerns Gradually Disappear

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Rocket Lab (RKLB.US) will announce its third quarter 2026 financial results after the U.S. stock market closes on Monday, November 9. Currently, the market believes that opportunities in the fields of launch services, spacecraft manufacturing, and national security projects will drive a substantial increase in Rocket Lab's third-quarter revenue. Its vertically integrated capabilities also provide additional support for ongoing investment and long-term business expansion. Meanwhile, despite Rocket Lab announcing another delay in the Neutron launch last month, after disclosing the latest developments in the rocket project, retail investors believe the impact of the postponement has already been priced into the stock and are betting that the stock will rise after the earnings release.

Outlook for Third Quarter Results

According to data from Koyfin, the market currently expects Rocket Lab's third-quarter revenue to grow by nearly 66% year-over-year to $257 million, with a GAAP loss per share of $0.08. The above revenue forecast falls within Rocket Lab's previous guidance range of $250 million to $265 million. The company also expects adjusted EBITDA loss to be between $17 million and $23 million, and has a record backlog of $2.36 billion in orders.

With growing defense demand, an expanding backlog of launch orders, and increasing opportunities in launch services, spacecraft manufacturing, and national security projects, Rocket Lab is strengthening its growth outlook. Rocket Lab operates through two business segments: the Space Systems segment, which develops and supplies satellites and spacecraft components; and the Launch Services segment, which provides dedicated rocket launch services. The Space Systems segment is the company's revenue driver, while the Launch Services segment remains key to the company's long-term growth.

The Space Systems business has now become Rocket Lab's largest revenue source. In the second quarter of 2026, the segment generated revenue of $189.48 million, up from $97.85 million a year earlier. In contrast, the Launch Services segment generated revenue of $44.59 million, lower than $46.65 million a year earlier. The Space Systems segment also led in gross profit. In the second quarter of 2026, its gross profit reached $65.47 million, more than three times that of the Launch Services segment at $19.11 million.

The backlog also reflects the gap between the two business segments. As of June 30, 2026, the Space Systems segment’s backlog stood at $1.42 billion, while the Launch Services segment was $940.2 million.

However, revenue growth resulting from an increased number of launch missions, plus orders received in previous quarters that are now contributing to income, are expected to support the revenue of the Launch Services segment. Rocket Lab's third-quarter results may benefit from the GHOST (Global Hypersonic & Orbital Spaceport Technology) deployable launch system announced in August 2026. This system enables Electron and HASTE rockets to launch from new locations worldwide, supporting multiple launch missions and time-critical national security tasks. Its rapid deployment capability and flexible launch scheduling are expected to further strengthen Rocket Lab’s position in the defense and government markets and create additional contract opportunities in missile defense testing and autonomous space missions.

It is worth mentioning that Rocket Lab’s cost per launch has already declined. In the second quarter, the company’s cost per launch was $4.4 million, down from $5 million in the second quarter of 2025 and $7.5 million in the first quarter of 2023. As the company executes more launch missions, lower launch costs help improve profit margins.

However, Rocket Lab’s ongoing investment in the Neutron rocket project, increased R&D expenditure, and potentially rising operating costs may put pressure on operating margins and limit overall profit growth. Supplier capacity constraints and revenue recognition depending on project milestones may also delay the conversion of the order backlog into actual revenue and cause quarterly profit performance to fluctuate.

Bulls Bet the Impact of Neutron’s Launch Delay Has Been Priced In Pre-Earnings

In mid-last month, Rocket Lab delayed the maiden flight of its new heavy-lift rocket Neutron, postponing the first launch to 2027. This was the latest in several delays for the Neutron project. As the launch preparation stage approached, the company found new issues in the rocket propellant tank manufacturing process, which led to this postponement.

Currently, Rocket Lab’s primary operational rocket is Electron, targeting small satellite orbital launches. Neutron, however, is positioned as a significantly upgraded launch vehicle capable of carrying heavier payloads and competing more directly with SpaceX’s (SPCX.US) market-dominant Falcon 9 rocket.

Reportedly, Rocket Lab had previously planned to complete Neutron’s maiden launch by the end of 2026. But the company hinted in August that a first flight this year would be quite challenging.

Neutron has already experienced several delays during its development cycle. When Rocket Lab first announced the rocket in 2021, it planned to launch in 2024; the launch date was then pushed to 2025, and then further delayed to this year.

The year 2026 has been fraught with setbacks for Neutron’s development. In January, a Neutron propellant tank ruptured during testing, which the company attributed to defects from a third-party manufacturer. After the incident, the company overhauled its manufacturing process and modified parts of the design, but this led to new problems: the domes manufactured previously formed tiny voids—known as “porosity”—between layers of carbon fiber composite material. These flaws appeared in the thicker sections introduced after design changes and could weaken overall structural strength.

Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck noted that the team has successfully reproduced the failure and added new steps to the production process to prevent bubbles from forming again. However, troubleshooting and implementing fixes took considerable time, ultimately causing the launch to be postponed until next year.

Recently, Rocket Lab stated on social platform X: “The Neutron rocket’s first stage forward dome has been fabricated and cured.” This progress shows the company is making headway in addressing the component issues that led to the latest launch delay. After coming off the automated fiber placement system, the dome has completed its autoclave cure cycle. Next, it will undergo analysis and material testing to confirm quality and strength, followed by integration into the first-stage tank assembly.

The company aims to complete manufacturing and inspection of the dome before the first quarter of 2027, after which it will proceed with first-stage integration, hydrostatic testing, and cryogenic testing within that quarter. Beck stated that completing these milestones will help Rocket Lab determine an adjusted launch target date.

Beck stated, “I’d rather show everyone the actual progress we’re making in real time than give a date that we might later have to retract.” He also pointed out that the long-term needs of customers are one reason the company prioritizes reliability, “These customers understand that a reliable rocket is far more valuable than one launched ahead of schedule. We are deeply grateful for their trust in us.”

In addition, Rocket Lab is preparing for the 100th mission of the Electron rocket, named “The Mountain God Rises,” which is scheduled to launch as early as November 14. The flight will launch a QPS-SAR satellite, provided by Japan’s QPS company, from Launch Complex 1 into a 575-kilometer low Earth orbit.

On the retail investor platform Stocktwits, sentiment toward Rocket Lab has remained “neutral.” Some users believe that Rocket Lab’s stock price will surge after the earnings report, as the impact of the Neutron rocket launch delay has already been absorbed by the market. Another user emphasized the broader opportunities Rocket Lab has within the space services sector, stating “Rocket Lab will become the ‘Amazon’ of the B2B space services field.”