Anthropic's roadshow may start as soon as this Tuesday; IPO pricing faces a major test after the AI sell-off

As AI concept stocks experienced a sharp sell-off last week, Anthropic's highly-anticipated IPO is about to officially enter its roadshow phase. This AI industry star is expected to kick off its IPO marketing as early as this Tuesday, aiming to complete its listing before Thanksgiving in the US. However, as market risk appetite for AI assets has shifted, its pricing and investor demand will face a tough test.

After the collective plunge of AI-related stocks last week, Wallstreet News noted on Friday that some potential investors have discussed a valuation for Anthropic of about $1.2 to $1.3 trillion, with some even considering as low as $1.1 trillion. This is a clear drop from previous expectations of $1.4 to $1.5 trillion, and far lower than the earlier-discussed maximum of around $2 trillion.

This means the challenge Anthropic is about to face is not just whether it can complete a mega-IPO, but also how much premium the public market is willing to pay for the growth potential of a cutting-edge AI company.

Waiting period ends, roadshow may start as early as Tuesday, listing before Thanksgiving remains the target

The timetable for Anthropic’s IPO is entering a critical stage.

According to a November 9 Bloomberg report on Monday, Anthropic could begin its official IPO marketing as early as November 10. Based on SEC regulations, a company must wait at least 15 calendar days after publicly filing its IPO registration documents before formally marketing to investors. Anthropic publicly filed its S-1 prospectus on October 26, making this Tuesday the earliest window to start the roadshow.

If all goes smoothly, Anthropic could price its shares and go public on Nasdaq during the week of November 16, completing its listing before the Thanksgiving holiday on November 26. Anthropic previously planned to list on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker symbol ANT.

The size of this IPO is also drawing attention. Bloomberg reported that Anthropic aims to match or even surpass SpaceX’s record-breaking fundraising in its IPO. SpaceX raised $86.2 billion when it listed in June this year, one of the largest IPOs in history. According to a previous Reuters report, Anthropic’s issuance could reach $100 billion.

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are leading the IPO underwriting, with another 20 banks participating. However, launching the roadshow does not mean all terms are set; the final price range, number of shares, and amount raised will still be determined based on investor feedback.

AI sell-off hits market confidence, whether the IPO window stays open is key

The challenges facing Anthropic’s IPO go beyond disagreements over its own valuation; the changing risk appetite for the entire AI sector is also a factor.

This Monday’s report pointed out that last week’s market turmoil pushed the “fear index”—the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s volatility index (VIX)—above 25.00 to over 28.00 on Thursday, closing at a seven-month high since late March.

Matt Kennedy, Senior Strategist at Renaissance Capital, stated that companies usually consider delaying IPOs when the VIX is above 25. However, Anthropic’s offering is different from a typical IPO in both size and narrative, so the market environment may affect its listing plans differently.

Last week, AI stocks were heavily sold off, with the Nasdaq 100 index dropping over 6% just on Thursday, erasing around $2.3 trillion in market cap among its constituents in a single day. AI infrastructure suppliers, cloud companies, and semiconductor firms all saw notable sell-offs, as investors re-evaluated the sustainability of AI capex and whether data center buildouts would yield sufficient returns.

Beyond market volatility, the expansion of AI infrastructure also faces political and regulatory uncertainties. After the US midterm elections, Democrats made gains, sparking concerns about tighter regulations on data center construction. Ballot results in some states restricting data center development have also put the focus on how difficult it may be for AI firms to secure computing power and build infrastructure in the future.

However, on Monday November 9, the market saw some recovery. The VIX dipped to about 20.11 during the session, while the S&P 500 Index rose over 2% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbed over 6% at midday. The easing volatility is providing a relatively favorable window for Anthropic’s roadshow.

Renaissance Capital’s Kennedy believes Anthropic’s IPO is not like an average company listing; the key will be whether the pricing can gain market acceptance. For the company, the current market situation may not be enough to force a postponement, but investors are likely to demand a higher discount and more attractive valuation.

Rapid revenue growth can't mask the pressure on profitability; investors await October revenue data

Another core controversy over Anthropic’s valuation is whether it can prove its revenue growth is sufficient to support such a massive IPO valuation.

According to the amended prospectus the company filed with the SEC on November 2, Anthropic’s Q3 revenue reached $16.956 billion, up 1,127% year-on-year and about 47% quarter-on-quarter. Cumulative revenue for the first three quarters reached $33.242 billion, with enterprise clients being a key driver.

However, the growth rate has shown signs of slowing. Q2 revenue grew 144% quarter-on-quarter, but in Q3 the increase slowed to 47%. While this growth is still impressive, for a company with a potential valuation exceeding a trillion dollars, investors are more concerned with whether growth can be sustained and whether new revenue can translate into profits.

In Q3, Anthropic posted an operating loss of $567 million, compared to operating profit of $974 million in Q2. Net losses hit $23.291 billion, up about 92% from the same period last year. The company explained that the operating loss in Q3 was mainly due to roughly $5 billion in short-term compute procurement costs and about $2 billion in non-cash expenses related to its staff donation matching program.

What concerns investors even more is that the total amount of compute procurement and infrastructure commitments disclosed by the company reached $895.4 billion, with nearly half expected to be fulfilled before the end of 2030. Such massive long-term compute commitments mean the company will need to continue deploying huge amounts of capital, increasing the challenge of balancing business growth with cash flow.

According to Reuters’ report last Thursday, investors are also waiting for Anthropic’s October revenue data, which was not disclosed in the updated prospectus. Some hope to use this number to judge whether the company can reverse the recent slowdown in growth.

For Anthropic, October revenue performance, enterprise client usage, and the ability to control compute costs may all become key questions investors focus on during the roadshow.

Super-scale IPO tests the AI funding market, Anthropic’s pricing will affect sector valuations

The significance of Anthropic’s IPO goes beyond just fundraising for the company itself.

As one of the first companies with core business built around developing cutting-edge AI models to try a public listing, Anthropic’s IPO pricing will provide an important valuation benchmark for the entire AI industry. Especially as AI infrastructure investment continues to grow and tech stock valuations are being reassessed, public market enthusiasm for Anthropic could influence how investors value other AI companies.

If Anthropic can proceed with its roadshow as planned and attract strong demand after the recent market turbulence, it would prove that the market is still willing to provide huge amounts of capital for AI firms with leading model capabilities and commercial scale. On the other hand, should the company be forced to significantly lower its valuation or even postpone the listing, it could further intensify concerns about the ecosystem’s funding capacity.

Investor disagreements reflect two current market perspectives: on the one hand, demand for enterprise applications of cutting-edge models like Claude is still growing rapidly, and the commercialization potential of AI is far from fully realized; on the other, compute procurement, data center construction, and energy supply all require continuous, large-scale investments, and it remains uncertain whether AI companies can achieve returns that match their investment scales.

Thus, the real focus of Anthropic’s IPO is no longer just whether it can achieve a trillion-dollar valuation, but after the major correction in AI concept stocks, how much the public market is actually willing to pay for the long-term growth of a cutting-edge AI company.

This week’s roadshow will provide the first important answer.